Surprisingly, this Trump administration has not attacked the H-1B program, at least not with regard to filings through USCIS. Under the previous Trump Administration, we saw a huge uptick in requests for further evidence (RFEs), and denials and approval rates took a nosedive. Since Trump took office earlier this year, approval rates remain high, although we are now starting to see more RFEs. However, this could all be about to change.

Potential Changes to the H-1B Lottery System

The current administration is considering changing the H-1B lottery system by introducing a weighted selection process, that would favor applicants with higher salaries.

How the Current H-1B Lottery Works

Under the current lottery system, employers submit online registrations for their employees in the first three weeks of March. At the end of March, USCIS runs a lottery and selects applicants at random. There is a total of 85,000 visas available, 20,000 for those with advanced degrees (known as the Master’s cap) and 65,000 for those with a bachelor’s degree (known as the regular cap).

What a Weighted Lottery Could Look Like

Under a weighted lottery system, USCIS would give preference to positions with the highest wages, potentially ranking registrations based on the Department of Labor’s wage levels. The aim is to ensure that the most “high-value” jobs, those with higher salaries, are filled first.

This could drastically alter how employers approach H-1B filings.

Smaller companies and startups offering entry-level wages may find it even harder to secure an H-1B slot.
Large corporations and tech giants that can offer top-tier salaries may see improved chances for selection.

H-1B cap cases would first go to those being paid a level IV wage, then Level III, Level II, and eventually Level I.

Conclusion

While no formal rule has been issued yet, the possibility of a weighted lottery is on the table. Employers should:

Begin evaluating offered salaries and job levels in anticipation of possible prioritization.
Be ready for USCIS to publish new guidance or propose regulatory changes in the coming months.

Any attempt to overhaul the current lottery system is likely to face significant opposition. Most H-1B candidates are recent graduates or early-career professionals working on OPT or STEM OPT, earning entry-level salaries. Even many large corporations do not pay Level 4 wages for these roles, meaning that under a salary-weighted lottery, smaller companies and startups could be almost entirely shut out of the selection process.

Proponents of the change may argue that a salary-weighted lottery will favor more highly skilled workers. However, this assumption is flawed, as such a system risks shutting out recent graduates and early-career professionals who may be highly qualified but earn entry-level wages. Employers and foreign workers alike should be prepared this long-standing lottery process may soon undergo one of the biggest changes in its history.